Frequently Asked Questions

General Questions

What is this website?

This site provides a summary of death counts from various causes attributable to the Trump administration.

What if I disagree with your counts?

The site offers you choices:

• You can click the Disable icon next to any counter to remove it from the total.
• You can click the Info icon next to any counter (or on any node in tree view) to visit that counter's page and then click "Explore the model" to open the model explorer (does not apply to counters that are just sums of other counters). In the model explorer you can:
  • Choose other mortality models if available.
  • Adjust the degree to which the deaths are attributed to the President.
• These changes can be cleared all at once using the Enable All and Reset All buttons at the top of the page.

Data

Where does the data come from?

Data comes from a variety of sources, including

• government agencies
  • CDC epidemiological data
  • Required reports from ICE
• aid agencies and NGOs
• academic research
• news reports
• other online sources tracking relevant data

See the Sources page for more information. You can also click the Info icon next to any counter (or on any node in tree view) to get detailed information about how that counter is sourced.

How accurate is the data?

It varies, depending on the cause of death and methodology. Here's a summary in declining order of accuracy:

• Some death counts are based on lists of actual deceased persons from official government sources. E.g. ICE detainee death reporting.
• Some death counts use lists of actual deceased persons accumulated from media reports. E.g. deaths incident to ICE operations.
• Some death counts combine summary counts from official government sources with individually reported deaths. E.g. measles deaths, from CDC totals plus state health department and coroner reports.
• Some death counts use summary counts from media reports. E.g. Iranian fatalities in the Iran war.
• The majority of counts at this time are estimates based on mathematical models of policy effects. E.g. All the USAID-related death estimates.

Aren't estimates from models less accurate than actual data?

Yes, of course. But in regions affected by the USAID cuts, reports of relevant mortality statistics are delayed by many months and may still be incomplete. When it comes to estimating excess deaths from USAID defunding, models may be all we have for some time. It's easy and fair to criticize them, but remember that the most effective way to criticize a model is to present a better model.

Measuring the effects of policy changes on mortality is inherently difficult because real-world outcomes are influenced by many overlapping factors. People’s health is affected by individual choices, local conditions, economic trends, and even random events like natural disasters. New policies rarely cause immediate or isolated changes in health outcomes. Deaths may occur months or years later, and other factors—like medical advances or unrelated crises—can mask or mimic the policy’s effects. Furthermore, many large-scale policy changes, especially funding cuts, can degrade data collection efforts.

For these reasons, researchers often rely on statistical models to estimate a policy’s impact. These models combine historical data, demographic information, and public health research to project the number of deaths likely associated with a policy, rather than counting them directly.

How often is the data updated?

• Enumerated lists and summary counts are updated when a change is noticed during a periodic check of the sources.
• Models run in real time, so the counts are changing continuously based on the death rate. However, the models themselves are only updated when a change is noticed in the source model or better models become available.

Do you count all deaths or excess deaths?

It depends on circumstances. For example, AIDS deaths due to discontinuation of PEPFAR are estimated as excess deaths over and above the "normal" levels of AIDS death, which are clearly not under control of the Trump administration.

On the other hand, the ICE detainee death count is not an "excess" figure because there is no such thing as a "normal" level of in-custody deaths, and the Trump administration should not be forgiven for detainee deaths just because ICE detainees died under the Biden administration as well.

Is Mortality 47 associated with the Impact Counter project?

No. This site is not affiliated with them and they are probably unaware of this site. When we started, theirs were the most authoritative models we could find on deaths resulting from the withdrawal of USAID support, and our diarrhea, malnutrition, pneumonia, and neglected tropical disease counters still use them. Our malaria, AIDS, and tuberculosis counters have since moved to newer published models from the Malaria Atlas Project, UNAIDS, and a peer-reviewed tuberculosis study. The Impact Counter models remain a selectable alternative in those counters' Model Explorer. See What's New for details.

Can I suggest new data sources?

Yes! Please contact us through the email address on our About page if you know of sources for authoritative mortality data that should be included.

Methodology

How do you determine which deaths are attributable to the President?

The assignment of blame for these deaths is ultimately a matter of opinion, but we try to follow a few guidelines:

• Conservative Estimates: Where possible, this site attempts to present death counts that are hard to attack as being too high. E.g. The count of deaths in ICE custody is drawn from ICE's own legally-required reporting.

• "Control = Responsibility" Principle: The more control you have of something, the more you are responsible for it. Accordingly, ICE bears responsibility for the life or death of every person they have detained, because when you take away someone's freedom, you are responsible for everything that happens to them.

• Proximal Causality:

  • We count deaths where the link is relatively straightforward:
    • Deaths due to initiating an action, such as ICE removal operations or military action
    • Deaths due to ceasing an action, such as abruptly stopping USAID funding
  • We don't count deaths where the link is broad-based or unclear:
    • Deaths due to violence against members of groups the President has criticized
    • Deaths due to pollution or climate change
    • Deaths caused by other nations acting alone, even if allied (Ukraine, Israel, Saudi Arabia)

• Failed Action: Failing to take an action that could save a life is not counted as causing the resulting death unless there was reliance on that action by the deceased. Thus failing to stop the war in Ukraine doesn't make the President responsible for the war dead, but he is responsible for failing to provide anti-malaria efforts that Africans had been told would be coming.

• Buck Stops Here: The President is responsible for everything the executive branch does. He took the job, he appointed the leaders, he set the priorities. What happens after that is on him.

Usage Tips

How do I learn more about a specific data source?

Click on the Info icon (or on any node in tree view) to open that counter's page, which shows:

• Description of the issue or cause of death
• Description of the methodology
• Data tables, under the Explore the data button.

What is the purpose of the Disable button?

Because attribution of the cause of death is a complex topic over which well-meaning people may disagree, we wanted to allow site users some ability to customize which death figures are included.

Toggling the Disable button on a counter will stop that counter from contributing its figures up the hierarchy. E.g. If you think it's inappropriate to attribute incidental ICE deaths to the Trump administration, you can disable that count and the summary counts above it will no longer include that cause of death.

Contact Information

Please refer to the contact information on the About page.