About the Mortality 47 Project

This website tracks mortality associated with the administration of Donald J. Trump, our 47th President. The goal is to provide a clear, centralized view of estimates and data compiled by public health experts, policy researchers, and government agencies.

Sources

Many of the figures presented here are estimates derived from models created by independent health policy professionals and academic researchers. The malaria, AIDS, and tuberculosis counters are derived from per-disease models from the Malaria Atlas Project, UNAIDS, and a PLOS Global Public Health study, respectively.

Several other counters continue to use models developed by the Impact Counter Project, whose earlier models for malaria, AIDS, and tuberculosis also remain selectable in each counter's Model Explorer. The Impact Counter's trackers freeze, by design, at a one-year projection horizon. However, this site uses its rates beyond that horizon by extending each tracker's final rates as a linear projection. That extension is this site's editorial choice, not the Impact Counter's.

In addition, where available, we also incorporate official government data on reported deaths or health outcomes, including data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Culpability Over Time

For the USAID-related counters, this site attributes executive branch culpability not to the absence of funding in itself but to its abrupt termination, which left no time for an orderly hand-off to other donors and NGOs. Because responsibility could in principle shift to others over time, those counters apply a culpability attenuation model: the share of each death attributed to executive branch policy declines from 100% to zero over time.

The model is based on PEPFAR's published transition plan for handing off its AIDS programs, and we have extended it for use by our other USAID-related counters as an improvement over our original 2-year attenuation model.

Choices

Readers who weigh these judgments differently can adjust them: each counter's Model Explorer allows choosing other attenuation schedules — including this site's original two-year taper — applying a maximum-culpability cap for those who attribute only a share of these deaths to U.S. policy, and, for several counters, selecting among alternative published rate models. Each counter's page discloses its defaults.

Attribution and Opinion

This site does not conduct original research and does not make independent claims about the number of deaths caused by any specific policy. Instead, it summarizes and organizes information from reputable sources so that readers can see a consolidated picture of the possible health consequences of policy decisions.

Any association of these deaths with the administration’s policies reflects interpretations and opinions, not definitive findings of causation. Public health experts may disagree on how to attribute mortality, and the numbers on this site should be understood as informed estimates rather than absolute counts.

We encourage readers to consult the original sources for more detailed methodologies and to consider these figures as part of an ongoing public discussion about the human cost of policy choices.

Privacy

This site has no accounts, no advertising, and no cookies.

Visit counts. We use Cloudflare Web Analytics, which counts page views without cookies and without tracking individual visitors across sites. We see only totals, such as how many times a page was viewed.
Your settings stay in your browser. Counters you turn off, models you adjust in the Model Explorer, and your chart preferences are saved in your browser's local storage so they persist between visits. They are never sent to us.
- Enable All and Reset All undo counter and model changes.
- Clearing this site's data in your browser removes everything.
Outside services. The site is hosted by Cloudflare, and its fonts and some styles load from Google Fonts and jsDelivr. As with any web request, those services receive your IP address and browser details under their own privacy policies. Links to sources and social media take you to sites with their own policies.
Email. If you write to us, we use your address only for direct communication between us.

Anonymity

Mortality 47’s publisher prefers to remain Anonymous at this time. To allay readers' concerns about credibility, the project is transparent about its sources, calculations, and editorial judgments. Your scrutiny is welcome. Corrections and methodological questions can be sent to mortality47@proton.me.

Contact

If you have questions, comments, or a source of additional mortality data that would improve this page, reach us at